Satoshi Notebook | Bitcoin's Value Trajectory

Bitcoin's Value Trajectory

bitcoin's value trajectory is not mere price appreciation - it is the systematic absorption of value from inferior stores of value as humanity recognizes and adopts perfect money.

2025-2030: The Gold Inflection

the first major milestone approaches:

       • surpassing gold's market cap ($13T) = ~$600k per bitcoin

       • sovereign nation adoption begins in earnest

       • first major national strategic reserve purchase

       • retirement funds begin 1-5% allocations

       • corporate treasury adoption accelerates

2030-2035: The Sovereign Game Theory

game theory forces nation-state adoption:

       • major powers accumulate strategic reserves

       • U.S. acquisition of 1M+ bitcoin (~$2M per coin)

       • central bank diversification from gold to bitcoin

       • sovereign wealth funds set 10%+ allocations

       • pension systems begin mandatory bitcoin allocation

2035-2040: The Global Monetization

bitcoin absorbs global store of value markets:

       • absorption of global real estate value begins

       • bond market value starts shifting to bitcoin

       • institutional portfolios reach 25%+ allocation

       • developing nations adopt bitcoin standard

       • $5M+ per bitcoin as monetization accelerates

2040-2045: The Systems Transition

fundamental restructuring of global finance:

       • bitcoin becomes primary global reserve asset

       • most nations hold majority reserves in bitcoin

       • global trade settles primarily in bitcoin

       • traditional financial systems begin obsolescence

       • $10M+ per bitcoin as system transition completes

2045-2050: The New Paradigm

emergence of a bitcoin-native world:

       • global economy operates on bitcoin standard

       • traditional currencies become local accounting units

       • pure proof-of-work monetary system established

       • $20M-40M per bitcoin as absorption completes

       • new economic paradigm fully manifests

Value Absorption Path

the trajectory follows systematic value absorption:

       • gold market ($13T)

       • global bonds ($120T)

       • real estate ($250T)

       • global broad money ($100T)

       • store of value premium for perfect money

The Mathematical Reality

these numbers arise from simple mathematics - with a fixed supply of 21 million bitcoin, absorption of even a fraction of global store of value markets creates astronomical unit values.

but the true transformation isn't in the numbers - it's in the shift to an entirely new monetary paradigm. these value projections merely reflect humanity's gradual recognition and adoption of perfect money.